Last updated on May 1st, 2024 at 09:12 pm

Home prices are always rising and falling in the U.S.

 However, concerns are being expressed regarding whether or not South Florida’s housing market will experience a crash by 2023 or even 2024.

Experts report that South Florida’s housing market remains strong and unlikely to crash due to a large influx of people moving there.

South Florida is just not like the rest of the U.S.

What is a housing bubble

A housing bubble refers to a situation in which the price of houses in a specific market or region experiences a rapid and unsustainable increase [in a housing boom], often fueled by speculation and hype.

What happens when that bubble bursts

When the bubble eventually bursts, the prices of houses tend to drop significantly [called a housing crash], leading to a decrease in home values and a decrease in the wealth of homeowners. 

This can result in widespread financial hardship, as well as a decline in the local economy. 

Housing bubbles are generally caused by a combination of factors, including low interest rates, limited supply of housing, high demand, and speculation by investors and buyers.

High unemployment can also lead to a housing crisis as a loss of jobs can lead to the sale of single-family homes. 

Miami dade unemployment rate
image: courtesy of FRED

Current Employment Data

  • One of the strongest job markets in the country.
  • With statistics from October 2022, the unemployment rate in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro area was 2.3% [compared to 3.7% nationally].

Spoiler alert

Yes house prices will probably drop in 2023. Higher mortgage rates have slowed down real estate transactions. When interest rates increase, the cost of buying a home goes up.

  1. Inventory in south Florida is still low.
  2. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistic, the unemployment rate in the is very low.
  3. Foreclosures in Florida have not increased yet.

What cities are part of South Florida

South Florida is much sought after destination in the U.S.

It typically includes the following cities:

  1. Miami
  2. Fort Lauderdale
  3. Hollywood
  4. West Palm Beach
  5. Boca Raton
  6. Delray Beach
  7. Boynton Beach
  8. Pompano Beach
  9. Homestead
  10. Key West

These cities are located in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.

What experts are saying about Florida

They predict that housing prices may decrease in 2023. The housing market has primarily been slowed down by higher borrowing rates. 

In fact, the price of single family homes in Miami Dade county haven’t called that much from the height of the marketplace in 2022. 

As of January 2023, [according to data obtained from Miami Realtors] the median price for homes in Miami Dade is $553,000.

median price of homes in Dade county
Image: courtesy of Miami realtors

Housing inventories low

Pre pandemic housing inventories approached over 20,000 active listings. 

However, due to the pandemic, inventories crashed to under 8,000 active listings and today has crested above 10,000. 

Inventories usually rise substantially during a market crisis.  There would most likely need to be a significant event that would cause both high unemployment and the number of listings in the marketplace to rise for some sort of major market decline. 

As long as listings remain low, a housing market crash in South Florida seems unlikely.

Miami dade county housing inventory
image: courtesy of

When will home prices drop In South Florida

If you’re a buyer in South Florida, you may be wondering when home prices will decrease. The housing market has seen tremendous growth over the last several years, yet experts don’t know what to expect for the future.

One of the primary reasons home prices in Florida have gone up is due to a shortage of housing inventory. With so many people moving into the area, there simply aren’t enough houses available for them to purchase.

Another factor contributing to home prices rising faster than inflation indicates they may no longer be within reach of most potential house buyers.

However, the recent hurricane has created renewed interest in homes in Florida. 

Thousands of homeowners have been displaced and will need to rebuild, potentially increasing demand for new construction.

How long will home prices continue to drop

After an unprecedented run that saw home prices and mortgage rates plummet, the housing market appears to have peaked. 

While demand and price gains have slowed down, experts do not anticipate a crisis like what occurred during the Great Recession.

Not surprisingly, Florida is no different from other states in regards to economic cooling. 

A rapid decline in affordability and increasing supply constraints are pushing sales activity lower across the board.

Miami-Dade County currently has an available inventory of just 3.3 months of homes for sale, which falls far short of what would be considered a balanced market (around 5 or 6 months).  However, it doesn’t take much time for trends to change in the housing market.

While this hasn’t stopped buyers from flocking to Florida yet, it has caused some roadblocks along the way.

home much will prices drop

Prices probably won’t drop much. Even Martin County has seen another jump in sales

In 2009, home prices in South Florida fell 36% and foreclosures almost hit 9%.

That was then, now a robust economy, a vibrant real estate market and year-round warm weather have spurred home sales in South Florida, driving prices up significantly as a result.

However, this boom has recently come to a close and the housing market is starting to cool off. While this may be bad news for some homeowners, it can be seen as an opportunity for rental property investors.

Home prices are expected to decline gradually through 2023, rather than experiencing a sudden crash, according to Goldman Sachs Research. 

They cite several mitigating factors like the supply pipeline of new units, lending standards, household leverage and an optimistic near-to-medium term labor market outlook as potential catalysts.

top 5 overpriced housing markets in South Florida

If the economy experiences a recession, it could have an adverse effect on the housing market in South Florida. A downturn would cause buyers to flee the market and prices to decrease.

The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates since early 2022. When interest rates go up,  it causes the pace of home sales to slow. It is just math.

According to a recent study, South Florida is among the most overpriced housing markets in America due to the influx of high-salaried remote workers into the state.

Here are the most expensive housing markets in South Florida 

According to reports, some of the most expensive cities in South Florida are:

  1. Key Biscayne, FL
  2. Fisher Island, FL
  3. Miami Beach, FL
  4. Sunny Isles Beach, FL
  5. Aventura, FL

Florida is a Hot Spot for Real Estate Investment

Florida is one of the world’s most sought-after real estate markets. It draws millions of tourists each year and presents real estate investors with an ideal opportunity to invest in vacation rental properties and generate a profit.

Florida homeowners will continue to see increased demand, and home prices are anticipated to rise in the future. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that the market will crash in 2023 due to tighter lending laws and improved mortgage rates.

Housing affordability in Florida has continued to decrease and inventory remains low, making it an attractive place for real estate investment. 

Not only does Florida boast an impressive tourist industry, but there is also a vibrant job market and room for future growth in the future.